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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 25th, 2014–Mar 26th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Purcells.

It's still possible to trigger large persistent slab avalanches throughout most of the region. This type of problem requires discipline and conservative decision making, even if you do not observe signs of instability.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries – 5-10 cm. The freezing level is around 1500 m and ridge winds light to moderate from the W-SW.Thursday: Cloudy with flurries. The freezing level 1400 m and light ridge winds. Freezing level at 1400m.Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Freezing level 1400m. Winds light south. Freezing level rising to 1600m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been limited with many areas reporting no new avalanches in the past several days. However, when we do hear reports they are often of large avalanches stepping down to deeply buried persistent weak layers, or even the ground. A size 3 accidentally skier triggered avalanche was reported on Sunday. This avalanche occurred on a steep west-facing alpine slope and stepped down to the ground (up to 2.5 m deep). One person was buried but was recovered without serious injury. On Saturday an anomalous sized 3.5 avalanche released naturally out of a SE facing feature at 2700m in the central portion of the region. Another skier triggered size 2 avalanche was reported on Tuesday. This was in the northern part of the region at 2300m on a northwest aspect, failing on facets near the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

20- 40 cm of light density snow has fallen over the last few days. This snow is settling nicely and likely being formed into soft wind slabs immediately lee of ridge crest.Numerous crusts can be found in the upper 30 cm of the snowpack on south facing slopes. These crusts produce sudden collapse failures in snowpack tests. A moderate shear persists down 30 - 50cm on the March 15 crust/surface hoar interface. Down 70 to 95cm below the surface you may find surface hoar and crusts buried at the beginning of March. This interface is still touchy in some areas, particularly in the north of the region. It also continues to produce sudden planar failures in compression tests.The deeper facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100 - 180cm, seams to be more active in this region than any other in the province and is still very difficult to trust. Needless to say, any avalanche at these deeper, persistent interfaces would be large and destructive. It continues to produce large destructive natural avalanches every few days. Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but without a large load, triggering is unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent accumulations have likely been blown into pockets of wind slab by generally moderate southwest winds. Watch for triggering in gullies, and in the lee of terrain breaks and ridge crests.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

There are a number of persistent layers in the mid to upper snowpack which have professional operators concerned. These layers, which include recently buried crusts and surface hoar, continue to produce sudden failures in snowpack tests.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

The deeply buried early February interface should stay on your radar as activity on this layer would be large and destructive. Possible triggers include cornice fall, thin spot triggering or solar warming.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6