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Avalanche Forecast

Nov 23rd, 2016–Nov 24th, 2016
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Purcells.

Danger is expected to increase with forecast snow and wind. As always, and especially when forecast confidence is low, it's important to supplement this forecast with your own observations. Please post your obs to the MIN.

Confidence

-

Weather Forecast

Light snowfall is expected for Thursday and Friday with 5-10cm of accumulation each day accompanied by moderate to strong southwesterly alpine winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms. Snowfall and winds should ease off with a clearing and cooling trend for Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports include a natural Size 2 storm slab avalanche on a steep fan below a large alpine face in the Glacier Creek area. Check out the MIN report for for details including a photo.

Snowpack Summary

Recent reports suggest average snowpack depth is 80-150cm in the alpine and 60-100cm at treeline. The snowpack below treeline remains below threshold for avalanches, but watch out for early season hazards such as hidden rocks, stumps, and open creeks. Up to 40cm of recent storm snow is settling into a cohesive slab over a hard crust. This crust is the primary weakness of concern and is expected to become increasingly reactive as the slab above settles and stiffens. Southerly winds have also formed very touchy wind slabs on lee features below ridetops in exposed terrain. Although conditions have been reported as being quite good, remember that an early season snowpack is inherently weak and requires thorough investigation before stepping out into bigger terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Touchy fresh wind slabs are primed for triggering on the downwind side of ridgecrests in exposed areas.
Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff or 'slabby'.Avoid steep or convex lee features directly below ridgetops.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow is beginning to settle into a cohesive slab that may be bonding poorly to a hard crust. On steep slopes the powder may also be sluffing readily.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Carefully assess the bond to the crust before committing to a slope.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3