Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 7th, 2014 8:29AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

Watch for signs of changing stability as the temperature rises during the day. 

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A warm, wet storm system will reach the coast early Monday. The interior should remain mostly dry for Monday but light flurries/showers are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will rise rapidly on Monday with the freezing level reaching around 1500m and winds increasing to moderate in the alpine. On Tuesday, the Purcells region will begin to see precipitation (3-6mm) and the freezing level are expected to rise to 2000m or higher. Wednesday is expected to be similar with freezing levels around 2000m and precipitation (5-10mm). Strong alpine winds from the SW are expected for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

Report of an isolated size 1 wind slab triggered by a ski cut in a steep gulley. 

Snowpack Summary

New snowfall sits on a layer of surface hoar.  Another 15-20cm below this you may find a hard rain crust. In the Golden area this crust exists up to around 1600m, whereas in the south it is up to 2000m or higher. In total, last week's storm produced slabs up to 1m thick in the north of the region and around 60cm thick in the south. This slab sits on the mid-November weak layer (surface hoar, facets, and/or a crust). Below this you will likely find a 15-20cm thick layer of sugary facets, which is sitting on a solid rain crust from early November. The reactivity of these layers may be slowly diminishing, but they still warrant cautious consideration. Snowpack tests are getting hard pops and drops results, indicating the potential for large propagation and large avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
New snow and moderate winds have created wind slabs in leeward features in wind exposed terrain.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
The chances of triggering a persistent slab have decreased, but the consequences are still high. Any slopes that did not avalanche during the last storm cycle should still be considered potentially hazardous.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid common trigger zones including thin snowpack areas, near rocky outcrops, and steep alpine slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Dec 8th, 2014 2:00PM

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