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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 13th, 2018–Dec 14th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Olympics.

Avoid cornices along ridges built by strong winds and snowfall.  Watch for wind drifted snow in steeper terrain. Be cautious due to variation in snow cover and exposed rocks and vegetation. 

Discussion

Discussion 

Low snow conditions continue to limit the overall avalanche hazard in the Olympics. A little over a foot of new snow has accumulated in the Hurricane Ridge area since Tuesday, with periods of very strong southerly winds. There is a very wide degree of variation in snow cover based on elevation and especially aspect. On windward southerly facing terrain, much of the area is void of snow cover. While on shaded and wind loaded north to east facing terrain the snow-depths averaged about 4 feet as of Thursday afternoon. Avalanches are possible in wind loaded terrain, especially near and above treeline.  

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays.

On days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, No Rating will be applied. We will continue to provide general snowpack and weather summaries for the Hurricane Ridge area even when No Rating is issued. 

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis 20181213

Winter is here.

A productive winter storm pattern has elevated the avalanche danger and provided an interesting start to the season.  

A quick breakdown:

  • Tuesday and Wednesday saw a significant localized avalanche cycles.

  • We have a lot of new snow...2’ to 5’ above 4500ft.

  • We’ve gotten a lot of wind.

  • We have weak layers near the ground.

Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist over the next couple of days. That said, it is early season and the flavor of avalanche you may run into is likely a function of elevation, timing, and dumb luck.

Here are some basic emerging patterns:

  • Snowfall totals so far this week (Monday morning to Thursday evening) illustrate more recent snowfall in the north than the south:

    • Mt. Baker: 55”

    • Washington Pass: 29”

    • Stevens Pass: 37”

    • Snoqualmie Pass: 28”

    • Paradise: 38”

    • Mt. Hood Meadows: 13”

  • Upper versus Lower Elevations: The change in the snowpack is still pretty dramatic with elevation. Height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for awhile.

  • East versus West: Loading along the East slope has been more incremental, and a  variety of buried facet and surface hoar layers may be found. This is most pronounced near WA Pass. Although significant snowfalls and precip totals have resulted in thicker, more homogeneous snowpack in the western zones, lingering weak layers near the ground will persist through the week.

The uncertainty of how reactive our buried weak layers are will carry into the weekend. Be cautious and get home safe.

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