Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 22nd, 2012 8:07AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

This bulletin is based on limited data. Local variations in conditions are likely to exist. Check out the forecaster's blog for further details on interpreting early season bulletins.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Friday: Moderate snowfall starting Thursday night is expected to bring 20-30cm of new snow before tapering off by the evening. Freezing levels could spike as high as 1400m, or higher in the Coquihalla, but shouldn't hover that high for very long. Mountaintop winds are expected to be extreme southwesterlies during the height of the storm. Saturday: Cloudy with isolated flurries, freezing levels around 800-1000m and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, Freezing levels dropping to 500m and light winds.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, although observations are extremely limited. Natural avalanche activity followed by human-triggered activity generally occurs with every intense weather period, such as what's forecast for Thursday night and Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Coquihalla and Cayoosh Passes have about 50cm of snow on the ground, while treeline areas have around a metre. Alpine areas likely have much more that that but also highly variable depths. The main snowpack feature in the Whistler area is a rain crust buried early November and now down around 80cm at treeline. A weak layer of facets sitting on top of this curst recently gave very easy sudden collapse compression test results as well as moderate extended column test results that propagated across the entire column. Widespread whumpfing and cracking on this layer has also been reported. This weakness was  found in the Duffey Lake area as well; however, at least at 1700m it was only 10cm off the ground and still moist. At upper treeline and alpine elevations it may be frozen and faceted and high enough off the ground to reduce the affects of ground cover at least on slopes with smooth ground cover (e.g. scree slopes, rock slabs, summer firn, grass, etc.). For more information check out the telemarktips.com forum, the Mountain Conditions Report, and Wayne Flann's Avalanche Blog.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Fresh wind slabs below ridge crests, behind terrain features, and in cross-loaded gullies are expected to be sensitive to human triggers. Particularly where they are sitting on a previously exposed or lightly buried crust from early November.
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Large avalanches running on a crust near the base of the snowpack are possible, particularly on slopes with smooth ground cover. Remote triggering and step-down avalanches are a concern with this weakness.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Nov 23rd, 2012 2:00PM