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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 29th, 2016–Mar 1st, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Variable winds and new snow are expected to form reactive slabs on a variety of aspects. Watch out for reverse loaded features.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: light snowfall is expected to bring up to 10cm through the day, mainly concentrated in the south of the region, moderate south easterly winds, 1200m freezing level. WEDNESDAY: mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, light to moderate southerly winds, 1200m freezing level. THURSDAY: light to moderate snowfall, moderate to light southerly winds, 1000m freezing level.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control North of Stewart produced storm slab avalanches up to size 2 on Sunday. 

Snowpack Summary

Between 15 and 25cm of new snow over the weekend combined with moderate winds has created wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine.  A total of 50cm of new snow now sits on a crust below treeline and on sunny aspects, or surface hoar in isolated sheltered and shady locations.  Below this an old crust buried around February 12th, that extends up to about 2000m can now be found down 60-80cm.  A layer of surface hoar buried late in January remains a lingering concern in thin snowpack areas in the far North of the region.  The snowpack at lower below treeline elevations may now be too shallow for avalanches in many places.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Given the recent and forecast snowfall and winds I suspect that you can find reactive soft slabs in steep unsupported terrain at most elevations and in wind loaded features in the alpine and at treeline.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Buried weak layers remain a concern in the north of the region where large avalanches can still be triggered from thin spots or by heavy loads such as a cornice collapse or smaller avalanche.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a big line. >Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 6