This bulletin is based on limited data. Local variations in conditions are likely to exist. Check out the
forecaster's blog for further details on interpreting early season bulletins.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Due to limited field observations
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure over southern BC should result in drier conditions and partial clearing for the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. The ridge should break down on Wednesday allowing a frontal system to push in. Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Freezing level around 500 m. Winds are light and variable. Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Freezing level at around 500 m. Winds light from the northwest. Wednesday: Increasing cloud with precipitation developing. Freezing level around 300-400 m.
Avalanche Summary
Observations are limited; however, it is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred at sometime in the past 48 hours. One observer reported ski cutting a couple size 1 avalanches in the Shames backcountry on Saturday. Natural avalanche activity should taper off early this week, but storm snow instabilities and weak wind slabs may still be susceptible to human triggering.
Snowpack Summary
60-80 cm of storm snow fell in the past few days, accompanied by shifting south to northwest winds. Weaknesses may exist within or under the storm snow. Expect deep wind slabs in exposed lee terrain and in cross-loaded gullies or terrain features. A recent profile at 1200m in the Shames area showed a thin layer of facets sitting on a crust 35cm off the ground. A snowpack test produced easy results on this layer, but the resistant fracture didn't propagate across the entire column. Total snowpack depth are probably around 150 cm in most treeline areas and deeper but more variable in the alpine. The snowpack below treeline may still be below threshold depth for avalanches in some areas. Check out the
Skeena/ Babine discussion forum for more information from the area.
Peter,
Avalanche Canada
