Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

We're looking at a series of small systems impacting the region throughout the forecast period. The winter weather train keeps rolling into town! TUESDAY: 5-15 cm Monday overnight into Tuesday afternoon, strong southwest wind, freezing levels 1300m. WEDNESDAY: Lingering flurries (5cm possible) moderate south wind, freezing levels 1200m, alpine temperatures around -4 C. THURSDAY: Snow in the afternoon (5cm). Moderate south wind, freezing level around 1200 m with alpine temperatures around -3 C.

On Sunday a Size 2 natural wind slab (average depth 40cm) was reported on a northeast aspect near 1800m in the south of the region. On Saturday, several wind slabs to Size 1.5 were reported on (east) northeast aspects in the north of the region.On Friday, loose snow avalanches were reported at treeline in steep terrain in the south of the region.The incoming weather will add load to the persistent slab, and human triggering remains possible in steep or unsupported terrain. 

Variable and unsettled weather has given 5-15cm of new snow in the past few days. Winds have been moderate to STRONG southerly, but most exposed surfaces are either heavily scoured or wind-pressed firm by now.Recent warming and sun have likely left a crust on solar aspects and below 1300 m (reportedly breakable crust below 1000m). Snow from the past week or so has settled into a 20-60 cm thick slab above an older crust interface. Reports suggest the bond to the crust is poor and has resulted in a reactive slab, in addition to weaknesses down 30-35cm within the storm snow itself (giving sudden planar results in snowpack tests).Weak sugary snow near the ground has been a dormant instability, but it may still be possible to trigger in steep rocky terrain.