Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

The main story is the strong northeasterly winds forecast for Tuesday. No precipitation is expected until late Thursday, with below average temperatures until then. TUESDAY: Sunny. Strong outflow (northeast) winds, Alpine temperatures around -15. WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Winds easing to light northwesterly. Alpine temperatures around -15. THURSDAY: Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Moderate westerly winds. Alpine temperatures warming slightly to -13.

Over the past few days we've had several reports of natural and human-triggered windslabs (mostly Size 2) in all areas of the region, especially on westerly aspects.  Reports from social media show touchy windslabs in the Sterling area, southwest aspect. https://www.facebook.com/groups/314113201944133/permalink/1329849827037127/Another natural persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Ningunsaw area on Thursday, indicating that the persistent problem will linger for some time in the northern part of the region.

Recent winds have redistributed the 20-40 cm of snow from Friday-Saturday at all elevation bands. This snow sits on a variable interface composed of hard wind slabs, weak surface hoar, and faceted snow.  The net result is touchy slabs on wind-loaded features and is giving easy to moderate sudden results in snowpack tests. Below the new snow, a well settled slab sits above the Christmas surface hoar layer which is well preserved in southern areas. This surface hoar is now buried 40-80 cm deep, and is still reactive in sheltered areas. Deeper weak layers have only been reactive in areas with thin snowpacks. This includes a facet layer from early December that has been reactive in snowpack tests at lower elevations in the southern part of the region, and weak facets near the ground that have produced avalanches in the northern part of the region.