Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 10th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

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Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. If there is no crust or if it starts to break down with afternoon warming, wet loose avalanches may be possible on steep slopes.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. 

Thursday night: Clearing overnight, moderate NW wind easing overnight, freezing levels 2500-2800 m.

Friday: Sunny, light N wind, freezing levels around 2800 m. 

Saturday: Sunny, light variable wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate SW wind, freezing levels 2500-3000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, ski cutting triggered some small loose wet avalanches which were failing in the top 10 cm and sliding on top of the crust. Numerous natural solar-triggered loose wet avalanches were observed last weekend. 

Snowpack Summary

Light rain on Tuesday and ongoing high freezing levels have moistened the surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust is expected on Thursday night with clear skies in the forecast. Any crust that does form may deteriorate with daytime heating and sun.

The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 40 cm and is reported to be knife hard and up to 30 cm thick. This crust extends to at least the top of treeline. While the snow above appears to be well bonded to this crust, we will continue to track it through this period of warming and sun for any signs of instabilities. 

Another prominent crust from mid-January is now down around 1 m but this crust no longer appears to be a concern in the region. 

Below the mid-January crust, the middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Solar-triggered loose wet avalanches may still be possible on steep slopes where a melt-freeze crust has not formed on the surface or where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon. 

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Feb 11th, 2022 4:00PM