Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

A weak low pressure system is slowly moving from the southern interior towards the northwest. This system is difficult to forecast for snowfall amounts. Generally there is not a lot of moisture associated with this low pressure, however some upslope areas may receive another 10-15 cm of light dry snow overnight and Wednesday. Models do not agree with respect to freezing levels; I am siding with the high resolution model that shows freezing levels rising up to about 1500 metres on Wednesday, dropping slightly on Thursday, and returning to valley bottoms by Friday. Winds are expected to be moderate from the southeast in the alpine on Wednesday, and then light easterly for the remainder of the forecast period.

Some wind slab avalanches have been reported up to size 1.0 in the alpine. Skiers sluff running fast on recently buried surface hoar and facets.

10-25 cm of new snow is now sitting on the mix of surface hoar, near surface facets, and sun crust that was left behind after the recent clear and warm weather. Easterly winds have transported the new snow and some of the loose snow available into wind slabs at higher elevations. The new snow is reported to be loose and unconsolidated except where the wind slabs exist. Forecast warming with continued light snow may settle the storm snow into a cohesive slab. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.