Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow; 5-15 cm / Moderate west wind / Low of -16

SUNDAY: Clearing skies with a mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest wind / High of -13

MONDAY: Sunny / Light southwest wind / High of -16

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness / Moderate northwest wind / High of -15

Fresh storm slabs formed on Saturday will likely remain reactive to human triggers through the weekend, especially in wind affected terrain.

A naturally triggered size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was observed in the Monashees on Wednesday on a West aspect at 2150 m. This avalanche failed on the early December facet/crust combo. It was 100 cm deep, a good example of the high consequence of triggering this layer.

25-35 cm of new snow and strong southwesterly winds on Saturday formed touchy storm slabs that will remain reactive to human triggers though the weekend; especially in wind affected terrain.

Below the new snow, the defining feature of the snowpack is a widespread crust that reaches as high as 2200m and now sits 80-150 cm below the surface. 

In some places overlying snow is well-bonded to the crust but in others weak faceted grains have been observed above it. The facets above the crust are most prominent at treeline where the crust is thinner. 

The recent snow will increase the likelihood of triggering this layer.

• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.