Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Your risk of triggering a slab avalanche increases throughout the day as the anticipated 6-10" of fresh snow gets wind-drifted by moderate winds and strong gusts, resulting in generally small but increasingly touchy avalanche conditions. Anywhere you find more than 8” of snow over the crust, evaluate the new snow layering and bond to the crust using frequent hand shears or test slopes. As conditions deteriorate, steer clear of slopes steeper than 35 degrees.
Discussion
As a strong system brings snow, wind and cooling temperatures, we think that avalanche concerns will be confined to the new snow that falls and gets redistributed by the wind late Monday night through Tuesday, creating slabs. You may start the day with firm snow surfaces and gradually building slab danger on wind-loaded slopes, but expect avalanche conditions to deteriorate and become more widespread as the riding conditions improve. Test any developing slab using hand shears, isolating columns or cutting across steep, small-scale terrain features and assume conditions will deteriorate. When in doubt, dial back your plans, and choose slopes less than 35 degrees.
An observation from Hurricane Ridge on Monday illustrates the state of the snowpack after several days of temperatures slightly above freezing allowing the previously dry upper snowpack to round and consolidate. Rollerball activity was observed and should not continue on Tuesday as temperatures drop below freezing. Expect the wet 3-4 cm of the upper snowpack to begin to refreeze with cooling Monday night into Tuesday.  In locations where the surface fully refreezes prior to the arrival of the new snow, the interface will be more reactive on Tuesday.
Forecast Schedule
For the 2019-20 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice. If you are out in the Olympics, share your backcountry observations with us and the greater community.
Snowpack Discussion
New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.