Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Watch for shallow wet snow on steep sun exposed terrain and be mindful of cornices as these are likely to weaken during the warmest part of the day.
Detailed Forecast
Mild daytime temperatures and sunshine Saturday should give way to increased clouds late in the day and a chance of a few showers late. This should allow for shallow surface snow melt, breaking down existing surface crusts through the day where they existed. Cooler settled powder is likely on steeper shaded slopes.Â
Small loose wet avalanches should be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects.Â
Also, watch for any older cornices as the sun and warming may weaken these, especially near midday.
Snowpack Discussion
About a week of fair weather, centered around the New Year, allowed for the significant snow that fell during a strong storm cycle that ended near Christmas Day, to settle and stabilize.
Fair and mild weather for much of the past week has allowed for sun or melt-freeze surface crusts to form on most slopes.Â
A weak system moved through the high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, depositing about 6 inches of snow. By Friday morning, January 8th there were only 2.5 inches of the recent snow left in the study plot, reported by the NPS ranger at Hurricane.
High pressure returned Thursday and Friday, providing plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures, well above freezing at Hurricane. This weather has allowed for recent snow to consolidate while sunshine and warming is causing shallow wet snow conditions during the warmest part of the day, followed by surface crusts overnight and mornings.
The current snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area consists of mostly stable, settled snow and generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for any wind deposited layers in higher terrain, especially on shaded slopes below ridges where older wind slabs might exist on specific terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1