Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
A refresh for the snowpack requires a refresh in mindset.
Snowfall and strong winds have formed new storm slabs, these will be especially reactive where they overlie a firm crust.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday a couple of isolated small loose avalanches were observed in the highway corridor. Recently the typical spring problems of wet loose avalanches and cornice failures have been occurring during warm and sunny weather.
Storm slab activity is expected on Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
In the alpine 15-20cm of new snow sits over a firm crust on solar aspects and well settled dry snow on northerly aspects.
At tree line the snow depth is at a record low of around 220cm. The Feb 3rd crust/facet layer persists at upper elevations, buried down 80-140cm.
Below tree line is a well-settled spring snowpack with a strong surface crust that will break down during the heat of the day.
Weather Summary
A weak frontal system will pass over our region Monday night and Tuesday delivering new snow and increased winds.
Tonight: Snow 10-15cm, strong SW winds, low -6 °C, freezing level (FZL) 1500m.
Tuesday: Snow easing through the day 5cm, moderate to strong W winds, low -7 °C, FZL 1900m.
Wednesday: Mix of sun & cloud, light NW winds, low -7 °C, FZL 1700m.
Thursday: Cloudy with flurries, low -2 °C, FZL 2300m.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
The new snow will need time to bond to the old surfaces, especially where it sits over a crust. Watch for cracking as you travel and use extra caution near ridge crests and leeward features where deeper wind deposits can be expected to be more reactive.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2