Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

A steady pacific moisture stream is aimed at the North Coast, although the track of the system suggests the bulk of the precipitation will initially fall just to the south of the region. Sunday: Between 5 and 10cm of snow at higher elevations / Extreme southwest winds / Freezing levels at 1400m Monday: Up to 15cm of snow at higher elevations / Strong southwest winds / Freezing levels at 1300m Overnight Monday and Tuesday: 10-15cm of snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing levels at 800m

Periods of heavy snow or rain, strong ridge winds, and warming will probably tip off a natural avalanche cycle in parts of the region. We could see wet activity at lower elevations with storm/wind slabs where snow accumulates. There is also potential for deep persistent weaknesses to be overloaded producing isolated very large and deep slides.

Continued snowfall has contributed to ongoing storm slab development. Warm temperatures have promoted rapid slab settlement, while rain has created wet loose surface snow at lower elevations. Southwest winds continue to build slabs on leeward slopes with cornices overhead in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. A recent report from the Ashman area mentioned whumpfs and other signs of instability associated with roughly 30 cm of recent snow rapidly settling into a slab under warm temperatures and significant wind. A surface hoar layer buried at the start of January may be around 40-70 cm deep now. In the mid-pack, a crust weakness buried in mid-December seems to be unreactive for the time being. Near the base of the snowpack is the crust-facet combination buried in November that could remain problematic, especially in shallower snowpack areas with heavy loading and warming.