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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 28th, 2014–Dec 29th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://www.facebook.com/MRGnationalparks/posts/608542575941919Numerous reports of people triggering avalanches directly or remotely are coming in daily. Tree line elevation is where this layer has been most reactive. Conditions are dangerous right now. Take extra caution and choose conservative terrain to ride.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge is gaining strength over the Interior. Clouds dissipating by tonight and temperatures getting colder. We may get a little more light snow but nothing significant. Expect clear skies tomorrow and a chilli north wind.

Snowpack Summary

Top 20-25cm is light snow. The widespread and highly reactive Dec 17 surface hoar layer is down ~50-70cm beneath a settling storm slab and on top of a thick rain crust up to 2100m. The Dec 9 surface hoar is down ~ 70-90cm but is more spotty in distribution. The Nov 9 crust sits 30cm above the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Backcountry report from yesterday at Balu Pass, east aspect, 200m wide avalanche, trigger unknown, ran to bottom flats. Teddy Bear trees, remote size 2.0, east aspect, 70-100cm deep. Slope to Puff Daddy, NE aspect, rider triggered size 1.0, ~1930m,  below a remotely triggered size 2.0 avalanche from two days ago, ~2000m, 75m wide, 75m long.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Rider triggered and remote avalanches are happening daily on a widespread surface hoar layer down ~50cm. The overlying slab has gained enough strength to propagate widely which means bigger consequences. This problem will persist for a while. 
Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Storm slab avalanches may step down to deeper layers, including the the Nov 9 layer at the bottom of the snowpack. The resulting avalanche would be very large.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 4