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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 20th, 2016–Jan 21st, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Expect solar triggered avalanches if the sun comes out today; minimize your exposure to avalanche paths if they are in the sun. A storm arriving on Thursday has the potential to pack a punch, bumping up danger.

Weather Forecast

Flurries should taper off this morning, with broken skies and sunny breaks possible this afternoon. Alpine temps will be around -6, with moderate W'ly winds. A system arriving later on Thursday will bring up to 20cm by Friday morning, with strong SW winds. On Friday the storm continues with freezing levels rising to 1700m and another 20cm of snow. 

Snowpack Summary

Low density powder overlies a soft slab that sits on the January 4th interface, down ~40cm. This interface is variable; with the largest surface hoar below 1700m. It appears to be touchiest in our region on steep S-SW aspects where the surface hoar sits on a sun crust, as shown in this video. On other aspects it sits on ~20cm of loose facets.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2.5 was accidentally triggered by skiers yesterday

. The avalanche was on a S aspect at 2500m, was 40-50cm deep, 40m wide and ran 200m. In addition, numerous natural avalanches occurred, many triggered by solar. Most were size 2, occurring from all aspects and ran onto the avalanche fans. Sluffing continues to occur when skiing steep slopes.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Below the light surface snow a soft slab sits on a touchy layer (see details tab). This layer is variable and hard to predict. It has been easily triggered where a sun crust is buried, but may also become more reactive at lower elevations.
Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls Ride slopes one at a time and spot your partners from safe locations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3