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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2016–Mar 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A small avalanche cycle occurred overnight on Saturday with a few paths releasing full depth to ground.  Large avalanches are possible at this time of year.

Confidence

High - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Convective flurries will likely continue overnight giving us another 5-8cm.  Lots of new snow is available for transport and winds are forecast to remain in the 30-40km/hr range.  Temps are forecast (-8C in the alpine) to cool and freezing levels will be dropping to more seasonal values (1600m).

Avalanche Summary

There was a small natural avalanceh cycle last evening up to sz 3. Many paths in the northern part of the forecast region ran full path and depth failing on basal facets at the ground. The cycle seems to be over but that commonly means that these areas are ripe for a trigger such as a human. Numerous loose dry avalanches were also observed on all aspects in the alpine out of steeper terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of snow over the past 24hrs in Alpine terrain. This snow tapers in terms of amounts and the lower elevation areas only have about 15cm. Winds were generally light over the past 24hrs and this new snow has only began to develop isolated windslabs in open wind affected terrain. Gullies, ridgelines, crossloaded areas will be places to be heads up for these problems. If you start to feel that cakey or upside down feeling in the snowpack thats a good indication that you are moving into more wind affected areas. Thin locations are still likely areas wherein you can awaken the basal instabilities causing a full depth avalanche. New windslabs will be reactive to skier traffic for a few days so use caution as you travel and choose smaller slopes to test the stability before committing to the terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslabs up to 40cm thick are building in alpine areas and in very specific locations at treeline.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets and the Jan 6th FC interface are likely to be triggerred from thinner snowpack areas.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Cornices

Cornices are large and we have seen a few collapse of late so ... look up!
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5