Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 3rd, 2017 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The new snow will pose a few problems while the snowpack adjusts. Loose dry avalanches, storm slabs and persistent slabs should be on your radar as avalanche problems. Also keep in mind that the snow will make thin areas hard to detect.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Snow. That's right, snow. Haven't heard that in awhile have ya? Not much at first, but as the week-end goes on we are expecting a total of 26cm. By tomorrow afternoon there may be up to 10cm. This will come in cold for the entire storm. A high of -15 is expected for tomorrow with temps falling by Sunday. Monday's low is -29! Winds will be light and from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today.

Snowpack Summary

As of this afternoon snow has started to fall on the Spray Rd. Amounts are still small, but so far all indications are that we'll have 5cm by tomorrow morning. This snow will hide the widespread hardslabs in the alpine and windslabs at treeline. At the moment, there are multiple slabs within the snowpack to be concerned about. At treeline and alpine elevations, the bond between these slabs is suspect and not especially strong. The other layer we are watching closely is the deeper Nov 12 depth hoar/facet layer. This is down 80cm at treeline and worth investigating. This layer is widespread and won't adjust to a new snow load for some time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Even though winds will be light, expect to find these near ridges and crossloaded features. The snow will be cold, it will take very little wind to redistribute the snow/

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

If these slabs react, expect a large propagation, and likely a step down to deeper layers. Storm slabs may be enough to trigger these slabs. Especially at treeline where the hardslab doesn't exist.

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Avoid unsupported slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Surface slabs, heavy snow loading and thin areas can potentially wake this layer up. Thin areas should be treated with caution.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Feb 4th, 2017 2:00PM