Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Dribs and drabs of snow with strong wind for the weekend followed by what looks to be a big warm up Monday night. 

SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1000 m, strong southwest switching to northwest wind, 5 to 10 cm possible.

SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1200 m, strong northwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow expected.

MONDAY: A few clouds at dawn with clouds steadily building to broken by sunset, freezing level beginning at valley bottom potentially rising as high as 1400 m, strong northwest wind, trace of snow possible. The freezing level is expected to remain in excess of 1500 m through Monday night.

TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, strong to extreme southwest wind, freezing level remaining elevated in excess of 1500 m, 5 to 10 cm of snow at upper elevations with rain failing in the valleys.

On Friday our field team found stiff and heavily wind affected snow in the Renshaw. They spotted one size 2 wind slab that had released out of a NW facing chute, more details here.

Last week control work produced storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 in steep rocky terrain in the far south of the region. Near McBride, storm slab avalanches to size 2 were observed in north and northwest facing alpine terrain. Loose dry activity in the new snow was also reported.

15 to 25 cm of snow fell this week with plenty of wind from the southwest. This storm snow sits on previously wind-affected snow in exposed areas, soft snow and perhaps surface hoar in sheltered areas, and a hard melt-freeze crust or moist snow below about 1600 m.

You may find a couple weak layers of surface hoar in the top 50 cm of the snowpack, as suggested by numerous MINs in the region. These layers are expected to be found in terrain features sheltered from the wind, for example in openings below treeline or at treeline elevations. As the new snow continues to settle and forms slab properties, these layers could become reactive to human traffic.

Around 60 to 100 cm of snow rests above a weak layer buried in early-December. On Jan 14th our field team found it in the Holmes area. This setup has created a persistent slab avalanche problem and a low probability/high consequence scenario. Depending on location, the buried weak layer is composed of surface hoar and/or a crust/facet combination. Reports suggest that this layer has become dormant in much of the region except for perhaps the Pine Pass area.

• Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
• Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.