Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing approximately 10 cm of new snow. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures of -8.Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries bringing approximately 10 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -4.

Reports from Friday showed new storm slabs becoming touchy and producing numerous natural, remotely triggered, and ski cut releases from size 1-2.5. Crown depths ranged from 10-30 cm deep. Two recent size 2.5 natural persistent slab avalanches that failed on the mid-December weak layer were observed at 1500-1700 metres in the north of the region.On Thursday explosive control work produced avalanches to size 3.5 on a variety of aspects above 2100 m. Failure planes included mid-January, mid-December and late-November. Natural avalanches to size 2 were observed on east facing slopes near 1900 m. Wednesday included further observations of recent activity showing storm slabs releasing naturally, from size 2 to 3, on all aspects and elevations. Explosive control also yielded numerous persistent slab results from size 2 to 3.5 on all aspects/elevations. All our persistent weak layers of concern were active. The mid-December layer is also suspected in two natural size 4 releases in and near the Glacier National Park area.A size 2.5 avalanche on a northeast facing slope at 1920 m in the Clemina Creek area resulted in a single fatality. More details are available here.

Approximately 30 cm of new snow fell with moderate to strong winds over Thursday night and Friday, bringing recent storm snow totals to 50-80 cm. This snow rests on up to a meter of older storm snow which has settled into a slab (aided by recent wind and warming events) above the mid-January weak layer.Four active weak layers are now quite deep in our snowpack:1) 80 to 160 cm of storm snow sits on the crust and/or surface hoar layer from mid-January. The crust is reportedly widespread, with the possible exception of high elevation north aspects. The surface hoar is 5 to 20 mm in size and was reported at tree line elevations and possibly higher. 2) Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is 180 to 200 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is found at all elevation bands. 3) Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 200 cm or more below the surface. It is most problematic at and below tree line. 4) A crust/facet layer from late November is yet another failure plane responsible for very large recent avalanches.