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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 15th, 2018–Feb 16th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Sunny skies and prolonged solar radiation could take a toll on the snowpack, weakening cornices and southerly facing aspects. Conservative terrain choices are appropriate for the day.

Weather Forecast

Don't forget to 'slip, slap, slop' your florescent green zinc sun screen on, as today will bring prolonged periods of sun with some cloudy periods. No snow in the forecast, temps ranging from -7 to -15 with 15-30km/hr westerly winds. Snow starting late this evening with 10-15cm by Saturday night with cold temps for Sunday into next week.

Snowpack Summary

7cm of snow overnight, 40cm in the past two days brings to height of snow to 335cm at 1900m. Previous southerly winds have created pockets of wind slab in the alpine and exposed tree line areas which is now covered by a thin layer of  snow. Persistent weak layers are now buried 150-200cm and a sun crust on steep solar aspects is down 30-50cm.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches observed yesterday along highway corridor up to size 3.0.Three days ago a group ascending MacDonald West Shoulder #4 remotely trigger a size 3.0 into NRC Gully from 10m away, the dust cloud settled within a few hundred meters of the highway. No one was involved in the avalanche.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40cm in 48hrs, previous moderate winds have redistributed it into pockets of wind slab in the alpine and exposed treeline locations. Expect the storm slab to be most reactive along ridge lines, convexities and in steep unsupported terrain.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming reactive slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

These slabs will be most susceptible to triggering in shallow areas. This type of instability will linger for a while yet. The significant storms seen recently have overloaded these layers, priming slopes to fail only awaiting a trigger.
Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Cornices

Cornices have become reactive in the last week. Strong winds, fluctuating temperatures, significant snowfall and strong solar radiation has contributed to these loitering hazards failing.
Cornices become weak with prolonged solar radiation, avoid traveling under these large hazards.Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4