Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2018–Jan 30th, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

With heavy snowfall and warming temps today expect a reactive storm slab and natural activity. Naturals will run far, avoid overhead hazard and stay out of avalanche runouts!

Weather Forecast

The storm pattern continues and we will see heavy snowfall accumulations the next 36 hrs. Today will be overcast with 15-20cms of snow accumulation. Ridge wind will be 25-40 km/hr from the SW and freezing level will climb to 1700m. Tonight we could see another 20 cm of snowfall with wind gusts to 85 km/hr

Snowpack Summary

13cm in past 24hrs, 60cm of settling storm snow with 160cm of snow accumulation over the past two weeks. Expect to find pockets of wind slab along ridge lines and lee features due to the moderate south winds in the Alpine. The Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~60cm, Jan 4 down ~80cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

There was a skier triggered a size 2 on Saturday, see Avalanche Canada Mountain Information Network (MIN) for more details. During the overnight period there was a natural cycle to size 3 with debris running well into runouts. With additional precip in the next 24 hrs, expect avalanches to continue to run full path in areas like Connaught Crk

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall and warming temperatures will create a reactive storm slab. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper weak layers. With steady snowfall accumulation in the last week expect to see avalanches gaining mass and running far.

Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers present a lower likelihood / high consequence scenario with the Jan 16th, 4th &Dec 15th surface hoar layers buried deep. These layers could be overloaded and reach their tipping point with today's warming and heavy snowfall

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4