Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10-20 cm, moderate westerly winds increasing to strong into the evening, alpine temperature near -7 C, freezing level near 1000 m.MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -3 C, freezing level near 1200 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10-20 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -6 C, freezing level near valley bottom.

Recent natural, skier-triggered, snowmobile-triggered, and skier-remoted avalanches have been reported on the December 15 layer at and below treeline on all aspects. The avalanches were generally small, being reported between size 1 and 2. Numerous reports of whumphing were also noted in low elevation cutblocks and flat terrain.Sluffing was also noted within the new snow in steep terrain. Reactivity of the storm and persistent slabs are likely to increase as the upper snowpack forms slab properties.

10-20 cm of new snow fell on surface hoar in sheltered slopes and a sun crust on steep solar aspects and may not bond well to them. The snow also may have fallen with moderate southwesterly winds in the alpine, which could have produced small wind slabs in lee features.The additional snow could create a dangerous slab above buried weak layers. Numerous persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack. Dry snow overlies two layers composed of weak and feathery surface hoar, with the deeper layer (December 15) buried 40 to 80 cm. This layer is found most often around and below treeline. As the overlying dry snow becomes more cohesive and forms a slab, this layer has the potential to create easily-triggerable destructive slab avalanches. Where and when this will occur is tricky to predict and even professionals are scratching their heads about it. It is a good time for conservative decision-making.Deeper in the snowpack (90 to 150 cm), a November crust is producing variable test results, from sudden fracture characters to no result. This layer is considered dormant but could be triggered where the snowpack is thin.Please share your observations through the Mountain Information Network.