Avalanche Forecast

Good

Mainly clear skies are expected for the forecast period. Winds should remain generally light from the southwest with daytime temperatures hovering around 4.0.

Recent observations mostly involve snowballing and several wet loose sluffs up to Size 1.5 on sun-exposed slopes. Daytime warming probably contributed to a size 2.5 slab avalanche that most likely failed on the crust/facet combo near the ground in Gates Lake area (NW of Pemberton) on Wednesday. The slide, which was 100m wide and 200m long, released on a west aspect at 1800m, and had a crown of 80-150cm.

Above freezing temperatures at higher elevations have caused snow surfaces to moisten on sun-exposed slopes; however, a nightly crust recovery is likely with the cooler temperatures and clear skies. The surface snow on northerly aspects is dry and wind affected with continued surface hoar growth at lower elevations. Below this, 40-80 cm of settling storm snow sits on a persistent weakness of buried surface hoar, facetted snow, and /or a crust. Recent snowpack tests show that this interface is gaining strength but is likely still susceptible to human triggering with potential to propagate widely. No significant weaknesses have been reported recently below this in the mid snowpack layers. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by warming or heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.