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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 16th, 2018–Nov 17th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Blue skies and early-season ambitions will bring people out in large numbers, so be mindful of parties above and below you. Rocks and other hidden dangers still lurk near the surface, so ride with caution.

Weather Forecast

Clearing and calm after the last few days' storm. No snowfall and a mix of sun and cloud is forecasted for the next 3 days. Freezing levels should remain below 1000m today and Saturday, with a warming on Sunday to 1400m. Ridge winds will remain light from the west.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of storm snow with moderate winds mainly from the S over the last 48hrs. Storm snow overlies surface hoar or a suncrust that has been found above 1900m up Connaught drainage and in the Asulkan hut area. Deeper in the snowpack is the October melt freeze crust. Snow depths vary from 75cm at Rogers Pass, to 150-170cm in alpine areas.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche observations from the last 24 hours due to poor visibility. Suspect there was a natural cycle from steep, alpine start zones (Macdonald, Tupper, Cheops) during the peak wind event overnight. Likely avalanches were up to size 2.5-3 and running onto their fans.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

45cm of recent storm snow has buried surface hoar on northerly aspects and a suncrust on solar aspects. These layers have been found in both Balu and upper Asulkan drainages, are likely widespread, and were reactive in snowpack tests yesterday.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The late October crust sits near the bottom of the snowpack and is producing sudden planar and sudden collapse results. Assess this layer before committing to a line. At higher elevations a buried facet layer exists from the September snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3