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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A last pulse of 5-10 cm snow with easing SW winds and a 1000 m freezing level is expected on Saturday ahead of a cooling and drying trend starting Sunday morning. Cloudy skies, light winds, cool temperatures and a few flurries may give way to sunny skies on Sunday/Monday. For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

Several size 1-2 wind slabs and storm slabs have been triggered naturally and by skiers and explosives this week. Some of these failed on a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or a crust/facet interface. Winds, new snow and rising temperatures increased the size and likelihood of avalanches on Friday. Human triggering remains a real possibility through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Conditions are variable across the Purcells. Wind slabs and storm slabs have developed at treeline and alpine elevations. In some areas, these overlie a surface hoar or crust/facet interface from early January and may be extra touchy. This persistent weak layer is around 30-60 cm down and may be just reaching tipping point in parts of the region. A more deeply buried layer of surface hoar from December is now considered dormant. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent storm has created storm slabs on a variety of slopes. Touchy wind slabs also exist on slopes lee to recent southerly winds.
Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A slab has formed above a touchy buried weakness. This could be triggered by the weight of a person, even from a distance. Avalanches could be larger than expected.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline, and north-facing alpine slopes, where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for remote triggers and wide propagations.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5