Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The storm system is expected to bring 5-10mm of precipitation to the Purcells region on Tuesday.  Winds are expected to increase to strong from the SW and freezing levels will climb to around 2000m by Tuesday afternoon.  On Wednesday and Thursday, freezing levels should remain around 2000m and winds will remain moderate or strong in the alpine.  There is currently some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts for Wednesday and Thursday with models currently showing another 10-30mm. 

Report of an isolated size 1 wind slab triggered by a ski cut in a steep gulley on Sunday.

New snowfall sits on a layer of surface hoar.  Another 15-20cm below this you may find a hard rain crust. In the Golden area this crust exists up to around 1600m, whereas in the south it is up to 2000m or higher. In total, last week's storm produced slabs up to 1m thick in the north of the region and around 60cm thick in the south. This slab sits on the mid-November weak layer (surface hoar, facets, and/or a crust). Below this you will likely find a 15-20cm thick layer of sugary facets, which is sitting on a solid rain crust from early November. The reactivity of these layers may be slowly diminishing, but they still warrant cautious consideration. Snowpack tests are getting hard pops and drops results, indicating the potential for large propagation and large avalanches.