Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Over the forecast period a series of fronts will pass through the interior. They'll bring strong south westerly winds, accompanied by rising freezing levels and new snow. Meteorologists find it tricky to pinpoint the timing of each storm when they are embedded in a strong zonal flow. They are confident in the pattern every (18-24hrs) per system but less confident in timing, and intensity.Tuesday: Moderate snow amounts 5-10cm. Strong SW winds 50-80km/hr. Max temperature at 1500m -7. Wednesday: Snow amounts 15-20cms. Strong SW winds up to 60km/hr. freezing levels could rise to 1300m and steady into Thursday. Thursday: Snow amounts 5-10cms. Freezing levels back at valley bottom.

Several size 1 rider triggered avalanches. One of these released on the mid-December surface hoar/facet layer on a NE aspect around 1900m. The others released within the upper 15-30cms of the snowpack on a buried surface hoar layer from December 20th. These are layers of concern that could start to produce larger avalanches once we receive more forecast wind, and snow.

There is about 25-35cm of recent storm snow sitting over the Mid-December interface of surface hoar and facets. Consistent winds have deposited soft slabs onto leeward exposed slopes, and terrain features. The interface between the new snow and older surfaces is surface hoar and/or facets from mid-December. This layer is gaining strength, but still remains within the threshold of human triggering where there are sufficient load/slab properties. This will be the layer to watch as more snow and wind accumulates this week. Lower in the snowpack, the mid-layers are well-consolidated and strong. Near the base of the snowpack there are a few layers that have the potential to trigger with very heavy loads or from shallow spots. These include a surface hoar/crust/facet layer that is currently unreactive but still a concern in areas that have not previously avalanched.