Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Continuing heavy snow, bringing 30 cm or more new snow by morning. Strong south winds.

THURSDAY: Continuing flurries bringing 10-15 cm of new snow and 2-day snow totals to 50-60 cm. Precipitation increasing and transitioning to wet flurries or rain overnight. Moderate south winds becoming strong overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -2 with freezing level to 1200 metres, increasing to 1700 metres overnight.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with easing flurries bringing approximately 10 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -1 with freezing levels falling back to 1300 metres.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -3.

We haven't yet received reports of avalanches from the latest snowfall, but expect our most recent accumulations to be sensitive to human triggering and capable of producing large avalanches on Thursday. Anticipate areas where the new snow has been loaded and stiffened by strong winds to be the most reactive.

Heavy snowfall forecast to continue through Wednesday night will bring a substantial layer of new snow to the region for Thursday. 

This time around, the new snow has buried an array of smooth surfaces provided by the 30-50 cm of snow we received last week at treeline and in the alpine. Recent observations show the new snow has buried a weak layer of surface hoar in the North Shore mountains.

Below the new snow, last week's storm snow mainly covers bare ground, smoothing over previous ground roughness. This smoothing effect has given us more widespread planar surfaces for avalanches as new snow accumulates and forms storm slabs.