Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, East Purcell, Purcells, St. Mary.
New snow depths will vary around the region. Verify conditions as you travel.
While signs of buried weak layers may be hard to find, they continue to produce avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Friday: Cornice falls were reported to have triggered large avalanches, mostly contained within the surface snow.
Thurs: One person was buried in an avalanche in Pedley Pass, just east of the forecast area. See details about that avalanche and a few nearby in these MINs.
Wed: Numerous, small natural and human triggered dry loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain, as well as a few small rider and explosive triggered slab avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
The upper snowpack is currently quite variable.
On solar aspects, a surface sun crust may exist to mountain top. Sheltered areas or north aspects contain surface hoar or facets.
5 to 10 cm of recent snow that is settling over a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists everywhere but north-facing slopes above 2000 m. In wind sheltered areas, it may have buried a layer of up to 10 mm surface hoar.
A few weak layers consisting of a crust, facets or surface hoar from February and January remain a concern, buried 30 to 60 cm.
A layer of facets from early December is buried 70 to 120 cm. In many areas, facets or depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. These deeper layers are not currently creating an avalanche problem.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 3 cm in the alpine. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1900 m.
Sunday
Mainly cloudy, with up to 5 cm snow. 20 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1800 m.
Monday
A mix of sun and cloud, with up to 15 cm of snow overnight. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -2 °C.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud, with isolated flurries. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -1 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind-affected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Several persistent weak layers exist, with the most problematic ones lying 30 to 60 cm deep. These layers remain a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust near the surface.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
The surface beneath the new snow varies from surface hoar, surface facets, or sun crust. Assess the bond of the new snow and expect different conditions as you travel between aspects and elevation.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5