Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 28th, 2019 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Dry and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Just when you think it should start to warm up, it just gets colder. Decent skiing will most likely be found just below treeline to valley bottom.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

On odd thing to write in March, but expect another cold snap. Friday night/saturday morning's low could be s low as -32 on the Spray Rd!! To make it even stranger, we are expecting a bit of snow as the temperature falls. Not much, but about 5cm is expected. Calm winds throughout the week end.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing reported today.

Snowpack Summary

We continue to loose strength in our entire snowpack. All elevations and aspects have felt the effects of the cold. In alpine and treeline areas this has helped to a certain degree. Slabs have been weakened and are becoming less "triggerable". Yet, at the same time, the same faceting process is making those thick/thin transitional areas more sensitive. It's an interesting balance, one that is shifting daily. We've seen some large, full depth avalanches lately that are giving us hints towards the slow, but steady change in the alpine. Treeline and below are more straight forward. The snowpack has basically lost it's entire structure.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are everywhere. In most areas they are resting on a thick layer of facets and could be easily triggered in unsupported terrain.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Dry

Any new snow will come in cold and light. It could build momentum and start to entrain the surface facets. Steep gullies will be suspect.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem is a "low probability, high consequence" situation. While difficult to trigger, if the layer does fail it will result in a full depth avalanche.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Mar 1st, 2019 2:00PM