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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2014–Dec 4th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Obvious signs of avalanche danger may be decreasing, but the snowpack remains capable of producing surprisingly large avalanches.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cold and cloudy. Light flurries at most. Light winds. Friday: Light snow.  Remaining cool. Winds increasing to moderate SW Saturday: Light snow. Strong SW winds. Temperatures increasing. An inversion (warmer temperatures at ridge top than in the valleys) may form.

Avalanche Summary

There was a widespread cycle of large (up to size 3) naturally and remotely-triggered avalanches last Friday/Saturday. Since then, whumpfs have reminded travelers of the lurking beast. While avalanche activity has diminished, the consequences of triggering a deep layer would be severe.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of recently fallen snow may have been pushed into wind slabs in exposed terrain. Below this you'll likely find a hard rain crust. In the Golden area this crust exists up to around 1600m, whereas in the south it is up to 2000m or higher. In total, last week's storm produced slabs up to 1m thick in the north of the region and around 60cm thick in the south. This slab sits on the mid-November weak layer (surface hoar, facets, and/or a crust). Below this you will likely find a 15-20cm thick layer of sugary facets, which is sitting on a solid rain crust from early November. Reports of whumpfing and remote triggering on these layers suggest a persistent weakness with the potential for large propagation and large avalanches.If you haven't already, check out the awesome conditions video at https://www.skiinggolden.com/.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Up to 1m of recent storm snow overlies weak crystals. Obvious signs of avalanche danger may be decreasing, but the snowpack remains capable of producing surprisingly large avalanches.
Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Good day to make conservative terrain choices.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5