Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

We're looking at classic unsettled spring weather for the forecast period: cloudy with isolated (sometimes intense) flurries.WEDNESDAY: Broken skies with isolated flurries (local amounts 5-10cm possible) / moderate south wind /Freezing level 1800mTHURSDAY: Flurries in the morning with 5cm possible / Light east wind / Freezing level 1400mFRIDAY: Isolated flurries (local amounts 5-10cm possible) / Light to moderate southwest wind / Freezing level 1600m

We've had several reports recently of surprising persistent (deep) slab avalanches to Size 4, many scrubbing to ground. See the link in the headline for detailed discussion of these low probability, high consequence events.A reconnaissance flight to Silent Pass in the north part of the region reported numerous natural avalanches to Size 3-4 on a wide variety of aspects and elevations. Some crowns were several hundred meters wide and avalanches ran to valley bottom... something to keep in mind when traveling up logging roads is your overhead exposure.In the wake of Saturday's storm expect the likelihood of triggering an avalanche to remain elevated, including cornice triggers. Click here for this great MIN report.

We had heavy snow (or rain up to 2000m in places) and strong to extreme southerly winds during the weekend's storm. Temperatures also warmed up significantly. The end result: Widespread storm slabs and wind slabs at treeline and above, with significant cornice growth as well.The most recent storm snow (totals of 20-50cm) sits on older windslabs (or soft slabs) at treeline and above. Below 1800m, the new (very moist) snow sits on a melt-freeze crust from last week's warm storm, and reports so far are that the new snow is bonding well to the old crust.The persistent weakness buried late-February is now down 90-140cm, and is composed of weak facetted crystals on a thick rain crust as high as about 2000m and facets on sun crust on steep southerly aspects. This layer has produced easy-moderate results in recent snowpack tests and has proven especially reactive on steep southerly aspects.Several deeper persistent weaknesses also remain a concern, including surface hoar buried early-February and mid-January (primarily in the northern Purcells). The november crust and basal facets are still reactive in shallow, rocky start zones.