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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2015–Jan 19th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

New storm slabs are building in Alpine and treeline areas due to the new snow and strong SW winds.  The new snow helped but we need another 20-30cm of snow to see a significant improvement in the ski quality.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations on Sunday

Weather Forecast

The storm wasnt as bit as we had hope and we can only expect to see about another 5cm over the next 24hrs.  Winds will begin to ease off and temperatures will slowly cool to more seasonal.  Cloudy conditions with isolated flurries are forecast for the next few days.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was observed in the commonwealth ridge or Heros bowl area but visibility was limited throughout the day.

Snowpack Summary

The Storm was a bit of a let down with only 10-15cm of snow falling at higher elevations. Valley floors saw minimal new snow. The 0116SH is now buried down 10-15cm at treeline and below with the 1213CR down 40cm. A layer of facets overlying this crust continues to produce moderate sudden collapse results and we expect this problem to persist for some time. This areas continue to get weaker and facet out and most of the Alpine areas are wind affected. Some "good" skiing may be found in sheltered areas at treeline and below but you have to be creative to be able to find these areas.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

In alpine areas the 1106cr isnt buried that deeply and we have experienced numerous settlements on this interface. No avalanches have been observed on this interface in some time.
Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

New storn slabs are building in Alpine and treeline areas.  These are mainly on concern on N and E aspects due to the strong SW winds.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Facets on top of the crust are continuing to produce moderate results indicating that there is still potential for human triggerring on this interface.
Avoid unsupported slopes.>Avoid cross loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3