Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 6th, 2013 9:59AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Dry and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

After several weeks of no change, the danger level is expected to rise this week due to increased snowfall and strong to extreme winds. The surface hoar and surface facets will not bare the new snow load well. It is time to pull in the reins!

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday will see winds up to 100km/h out of the NW and temperatures near -11. An additional 5 to 10cm of snow is possible with as much as 40cm possible Tuesday night.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing observed, but visibility was mainly obscured.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 15cm of new snow at treeline in the past 36hrs. Further wind slab development has occurred in alpine areas and loading was ongoing due to strong W and NW winds.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slab development is ongoing in the Alpine with up to 15cm of recent snow and persistent strong W and NW winds. Convex and/or unsupported lee and cross loaded terrain at ridgeline should be treated with caution.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in extreme terrain as the new snow sits on a weak layer of facets and surface hoar. This is of particular concern to ice climbers.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Its easy to forget about this problem but don't forget about it just yet. This basal crust will be the likely layer for some large avalanches. It may be easier to trigger from thin or shallow snow pack areas so heads up in this type of terrain.

Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Jan 7th, 2013 2:00PM