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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2013–Jan 7th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kananaskis.

After several weeks of no change, the danger level is expected to rise this week due to increased snowfall and strong to extreme winds. The surface hoar and surface facets will not bare the new snow load well. It is time to pull in the reins!

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday will see winds up to 100km/h out of the NW and temperatures near -11. An additional 5 to 10cm of snow is possible with as much as 40cm possible Tuesday night.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing observed, but visibility was mainly obscured.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 15cm of new snow at treeline in the past 36hrs. Further wind slab development has occurred in alpine areas and loading was ongoing due to strong W and NW winds.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slab development is ongoing in the Alpine with up to 15cm of recent snow and persistent strong W and NW winds. Convex and/or unsupported lee and cross loaded terrain at ridgeline should be treated with caution.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in extreme terrain as the new snow sits on a weak layer of facets and surface hoar. This is of particular concern to ice climbers.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Its easy to forget about this problem but don't forget about it just yet.  This basal crust will be the likely layer for some large avalanches.  It may be easier to trigger from thin or shallow snow pack areas so heads up in this type of terrain.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6