Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 24th, 2015–Mar 25th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Touchy conditions exist in the North of the region with the potential for large and destructive avalanches becoming more likely as temperatures rise.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Very light rain. Winds out of the SW begin to pick up as warm air floods into the region. Look for moderate SW winds at treeline, strong to extreme W winds at ridgetop. Freezing level should climb to 2500m by late afternoon.Thursday: No significant precipitation expected. Moderate SW winds at treeline, strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Freezing level starting the day at 2500m, climbing to 2800m by Thursday night.Friday: No significant precipitation. Freezing level starting around 2800m, lowering slightly to 2200m by the end of the day.  Winds moderate SW at treeline, strong to extreme SW at ridgetop.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week, there have been a number of avalanches to size 2.5 occurring on the March 11 persistent weak layer. Some avalanches have occurred naturally, or remotely from distances of up to 100m. Hot spots for avalanche activity seem to include the Duffey Lake area, the Birkenhead drainage, the Hurley and the South Chilcotins.  No new activity to report from Monday.

Snowpack Summary

A few centimeters of new snow fell Monday night. This new snow rests on top of wind slabs that formed over the last few days in response to recent wind, snowfall and warm temperatures. At lower elevations, rain has saturated the snowpack. Cornices may also be fragile. A touchy crust/facet persistent weak layer, buried up to 60 cm down, has been reactive producing easy test results at upper treeline and alpine elevations, especially in the north of the region (see avalanche summary). Avalanche problems associated with this layer may linger for a while with the potential for surprisingly large and destructive avalanches. Below this, the snowpack is reported to be generally well-settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Easy failures in snowpack tests and large natural avalanches show that a recently buried crust/facet layer commands respect. Warming temperatures will likely increase the reactivity of this slab Wednesday.
Avoid steep high consequence features, convexities and areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.>Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times. Cornice fall will become more likely with increasing temperatures.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 5