Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2015 7:45AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Peter, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

New snow, wind, and fluctuating temperatures are on the menu for the next couple days. Choose conservative terrain until the new snow has a chance to settle and bond.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A center of low pressure crosses the region on Friday resulting in moderate precipitation â€“ 15-25 cm. The freezing level should be around 500 m and winds are moderate to strong from the west. The weekend looks mainly cloudy, cooler, and a bit drier. Expect 5-10 cm each day â€“ maybe a bit more later on Sunday. The freezing level is at valley bottom. Ridge winds are light to moderate from the southwest-southeast, but we could see strong outflows develop in the coastal inlets and valleys on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports of avalanches for the past few days. Watch for fresh, touchy wind and storm slabs to develop over the next couple days.

Snowpack Summary

Strong outflow winds earlier this week left a variety of wind affected conditions in exposed terrain at all elevations. You will likely find wind pressed snow on north aspects, thicker wind slabs on south facing features and some degree of cross-loading on everything else. At and below treeline widespread surface hoar was reported, which may become an issue once its buried by new snow. Some areas experienced light rain or freezing rain early on New Years Day which could lessen or eliminate this problem. The mid December crust can be found down around 30 to 80 cm and is sandwiched with facets and surface hoar. The mid November crust down 70 to 175 is gaining strength but is still reactive in test profiles. It is likely trending towards dormancy.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow may not bond well to the previous snow surface and could be triggered naturally or by the weight of a rider, especially where fresh dense wind slabs form (exposed north to east aspects).

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where new snow may overlie surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A series of crusts in the upper and middle snowpack may be reactivated by the storm. Surface avalanches in motion have the potential to step down creating large destructive avalanches.

Use caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 6

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2015 2:00PM