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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 11th, 2015–Apr 12th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Wind effect in the alpine and a treeline are of prime concern with this storm, use caution when riding/traveling in the backcountry. If you have field observations to share here we'd love to hear from you.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Will ramp up precipitation with another 8 to 10 cm of snow at upper elevations. Freezing levels 500m overnight to 800m with daytime heating. MONDAY: Another 5 to 10 cm of snow. Precipitation will be heavier towards the coast, but the inland portion of the Northwest Coast may see as much as 45 cm of snow at upper elevations through the forecast period.TUESDAY: A brief break in the weather, cloudy with sunny periods, some flurries with freezing levels from 500 to 800m. Winds moderate to strong from the south west for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Commercial operators are reporting strong winds in the alpine stripping the new snow down to old crust surfaces and building wind slabs and sastrugi. One operator has reported numerous size 2 and 2.5 avalanches with explosives control.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is being redistributed by strong south west winds into wind slabs on lee slopes. Reports of activity on the March 25th surface hoar / crust layer have diminished, but is still worth remembering. This interface was more reactive recently in the northern part of the region, but had been reported throughout the northwest coastal area and may reappear as a problem given the right conditions. For the most part, the chief concern is wind slabs over a variety of recent surfaces, crusts, facets and surface hoar that formed in in sheltered places during the last spell of clear cold weather. Large ripe cornices are also of concern with additional loading, especially when the sun and warm temperatures come back.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds associated with this storm have built wind slabs in lee terrain, these wind loaded pockets may be sitting on facets, surface hoar or crusts and could be very touchy
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Additional loading on the March 25 combi-layer may make this layer extremely touchy. Use caution in wind loaded areas and other deep deposition zones.
Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4