Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 10th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
jonas hoke,
Backcountry travelers keep finding slopes where the Jan 29th surface hoar is ripe for triggering.
Be extra cautious with your route selection around treeline, especially if you are pushing into terrain that is a little off the beaten bath.
Summary
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure will be with us for the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and warm daytime temps.
Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine Low -11*C. Ridgetop winds moderate Northwest.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High -4*C. Freezing level (Fzl) 1000 m. Light West wind.
Sat: Mainly sunny. Low -4*C, High -1*C. Fzl 1600 m. Light W wind.
Sunday: Sun. Fzl 1700m.
Snowpack Summary
5-10cm of new snow has been redistributed by strong S'rly wind in the alpine. Expect windslabs in lees, and scoured sun crust on steep solars.
Rain/warm temps will give us a crust on all aspects below 1650m.
The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm depending aspect and elevation, and remains triggerable in isolated locations (see avalanche problems).
Avalanche Summary
There were a few size 2-2.5 avalanches in the steep terrain above the highway corridor Thursday.
Several reports of skier triggered avalanches on the Jan 29 Surface Hoar Layer in the past few days...
Somewhere in the Asulkan?
The Hourglass.
Bonney Moraines - MIN, MIN, MCR, and an additional Sz 1.5 with a partial burial.
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
This problem is becoming increasingly complex to manage - expect to trigger it on any treeline slopes that; were not heavily skied, or beaten up by the wind and sun prior to the 29th; or haven't already had an avalanche on this layer.
- Whumphing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
- Ski cutting is not an effective way to manage a layer buried this deeply.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Strong south/southwest winds and new snow have continued to build fresh wind slabs at upper elevations. If the snow surface feels stiff, you're standing on a wind slab. Evaluate wind loaded areas carefully.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 11th, 2022 4:00PM
