There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the snowpack is going to react to the sustained heat and sun. Loose wet avalanches and cornice failures are expected to become more likely each day. During times of uncertainty, conservative terrain selection is essential.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
The region now sits under the warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist into early next week bringing very high freezing levels and sun.Â
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m with an inversion.Â
Saturday: Mainly sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels as high as 3400 m with an inversion.Â
Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m with an inversion, dropping to around 2500 m by Sunday night.Â
Monday: Mainly sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2700 m with an inversion.Â
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days but on Thursday, glide cracks were reported to be growing in size, likely from the persistent mild temperatures and rain event.Â
If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain and warm temperatures had saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread thick crust now caps the snowpack. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crust are now breaking down. At the highest elevations around Squamish, you may find up to 15 cm of new snow from the recent storm.Â
Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack has been bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Problems
Cornices
Large cornices around ridge crests are expected to become weak during the warming event this weekend. With each day of warming, cornice failures will become more likely.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
As the warm conditions and sun persist, loose wet avalanches will become more likely and potentially larger. Extra caution is necessary around steep south facing slopes when the sun is strong.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 22nd, 2022 4:00PM
