Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. The snowpack structure is generally well understood.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 900 m. Alpine temperature around -5 °C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected, with up to 20 cm possible around KItimat. Moderate to strong south ridgetop wind, trending to extreme southwest in the high alpine. Freezing level around 900 m. Alpine temperature around -5 °C.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 3-7 cm through the day. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 900 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 5-15 through the day. Moderate to strong south ridgetop wind. Freezing level down to around 500 m overnight, back up to 1000 m by the afternoon.

On Tuesday, east of Terrace, a size 2.5 naturally triggered storm slab avalanche was reported on a southeast aspect. It started around treeline, and kept moving well below treeline. 

On Monday, east of Terrace, a size 3 naturally triggered avalanche was reported in steep terrain on a north aspect. Northeast of Stewart, several naturally triggered windslab avalanches up to size 3.5 were reported in steep, lee features at treeline and above. Also, numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported below treeline across the region.

On Sunday, storm and wind slabs were natural and human triggered to size 1.5. Several larger avalanches have been reported where storm slabs sit on a buried surface hoar or crust. 

Activity on deeper persistent weak layers has been limited throughout last weekend's storm. Avalanches are unlikely to be human triggered on these layers, but possible with a large trigger such as a storm slab in motion or a large cornice fall.

50-70cm of recent snow has fallen, with strong southwest winds creating deeper deposits on east facing aspects. Low elevations may hold 10-20 cm of wet/moist snow sitting over a widespread crust on all aspects below 1000 m.

Below the recent storm snow, a melt freeze crust exists on south facing slopes, with surface hoar in sheltered terrain features at treeline and alpine elevations. This has been reactive to human triggers within the last 3 days. Reports suggest the surface hoar is most widespread around Terrace.

Another layer of crust and surface hoar sits 60-100 cm deep, buried in late February. It is most prominent in sheltered terrain features at treeline elevations. This layer has shown limited reactivity within the last week. It is more likely to be triggered by large loads like cornice falls or smaller avalanches in motion. 

A thick rain crust from mid-February is buried 70-110 cm. The snowpack below is well consolidated.

• Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
• As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.