Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 30th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
ahanna,
Avalanche Canada
New snow and wind continue to form fresh and reactive slabs in leeward terrain features at upper elevations. Wind slabs will be especially touchy where they sit over a crust or surface hoar.
For higher snowfall areas near Renshaw, refer to the Cariboos bulletin.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Snowfall 5-15 cm. Moderate NW wind. Treeline temperature around -10 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.
Monday: Flurries up to 3 cm. Moderate NW wind. Treeline high around -12 °C.
Tuesday: Sunny. Light NW wind. Treeline high around -20 °C.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, strong SW wind, treeline high around -18 °C.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations as visibility deteriorated on Saturday.Â
The theme during the dry spell last week was wind slab avalanches size 2-3. Some of these avalanches were failing down to the bedrock in extreme terrain features.
On Friday our field team observed evidence of previous wind slab avalanches having stepped down to deeply buried layers, resulting in large avalanches in Kakwa. This observation has us scratching our heads about the potential for deep avalanches going forward.
Snowpack Summary
New snow and strong wind are forming wind slabs at upper elevations. The new snow falls on highly wind affected surfaces in the alpine, a melt-freeze crust on steep solar aspects and low elevations and a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below in some areas in the south of the region.
A thin crust may be found 20-30 cm deep, which was the main sliding surface for the wind slab avalanche cycle last weekend. Another crust is found around 70 cm deep but has not shown recent reactivity. The lower snowpack is generally strong and bonded, with one or multiple crusts near the ground. We suspect the lower snowpack could be weak in shallow, rocky, wind-affected slopes east of the divide.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow and wind are forming fresh slabs. Storm slabs will be most reactive and propagate most widely where they sit over a crust (steep solar aspects and low elevations) or a layer of surface hoar (areas in the south of the region).
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 31st, 2022 4:00PM
