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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 17th, 2021–Feb 18th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Flurries and new snow are not expected to bond well to a slippery crust. Expect avalanche size and sensitivity to increase as snowfall accumulates.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy / moderate south wind / ridgeline temperature low -6 / freezing level dropping below 500 m

THURSDAY: Flurries and snow, 10-15 cm accumulating through the day / moderate south-southwesterly wind / ridgeline temperature high -1 / freezing level below 900 m

FRIDAY: Heavy snow, 20-30 cm / moderate gusting to high southerly wind / ridgeline temperature high -1 / freezing level around 700 m

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / moderate southerly wind / ridgeline temperature high -2 / freezing level around 700 m

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, riders found soft low density storm snow rapidly gaining strength and reactivity as temperatures warmed through the day. Slab avalanches size 1-1.5 and 15-30 cm deep released naturally and were triggered by skiers and explosives in the afternoon. There are some tremendous visuals in this MIN report. 

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall accumulating Thursday will cover a widespread crust on most slopes and a variety of wind affected surfaces and crusts at upper elevations.

An unusual mix of facets, thin breakable crust, and isolated pockets of surface hoar is found 15-30 cm below the surface. This overlies 30-40 cm of gradually faceting snow, over a wide spread and supportive crust underneath. The snowpack is well settled below.

Terrain and Travel

  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Snowfall accumulating through the day is not expected to bond well to a slippery crust. Expect storm slab size and sensitivity to increase through Thursday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2