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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2013–Jan 16th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Watch for solar warming in the alpine, especially on sunny slopes.  Moderate winds continue to create wind slabs and cornices.  Pay attention to changing conditions today!

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will maintain dry conditions today, however a NW flow may spread some cloud and snow later today and Wednesday.  An inversion is also likely today. The inversion, combined with sunny breaks and solar radiation, may cause snow to become weak and unstable on solar aspects,

Snowpack Summary

Soft and hard wind slabs overlie the January 4 sun crust-surface hoar layer.  This layer is down 40-60cm.  The sensitivity of this layer is quite variable, however skiers have been triggering avalanches on this layer in specific terrain features.  Steep solar aspects are most reactive.  The mid-pack remains strong. 

Avalanche Summary

Skiers have been triggering avalanches in isolated locations in the alpine and treeline, mostly on steep solar aspects.  The largest of these was a size 2.5 Sa from two days ago, and a size 1.5 from Grizzly Shoulder yesterday.  Isolated natural avalanches have been observed from steep start zones.  Use caution on wind loaded areas on solar aspects.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A cohesive slab overlies the January 4 persistent weak layer. Variable distribution and composition makes this layer difficult to predict.  It is most reactive on steep solar aspects.  There have been two skier triggered slides on this layer.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Upper level winds from the N have created wind slabs on S-SE slopes in the alpine. Winds around 2000m are from the south, loading N-NE slopes. Watch for windslabs in the alpine; if triggered they may step down to the persistent slab.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2