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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2016–Jan 16th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Watch for whumphing or cracking in the new snow. Remote-triggering is a real possibility as the surface snow becomes more a cohesive slab.

Weather Forecast

Isolated flurries today, not amounting to much. Winds will be light to moderate westerlies at ridge-top. Freezing levels remain at valley bottom. Moving into the weekend, light snow will arrive Saturday afternoon with freezing levels rising to 1300m Saturday night and moderate westerly winds. Sunday brings continued light snow and moderate winds.

Snowpack Summary

In the alpine up to 35 cm of new snow buries the January 4th interface. This interface is surface hoar in protected areas, sun crust on steep S - SW aspects and loose facets at tree-line and below. Where wind-affected, soft slabs have formed in lee features. At lower elevations, the mild temp's are settling the new snow into very soft slabs.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 slab pulled out of the Crossover path yesterday (Herdman Couloir, Mt Macdonald). The start zone is steep, N-Facing rocky terrain, but the path is a perfect skiing angle. This ran further than initially expected. Several size 1-1.5 slabs were observed from SE-SW paths off of MT Tupper, all propagating on the Jan 4 interface.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Where wind-affected, touchy soft slabs are forming. At lower elevations, mild temp's are settling the new snow into soft slabs as well. At all elevations, these thin slabs may pick up speed quickly, pushing folks into terrain traps.
Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading could create slabs.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Up to 35cm of new snow overlies the weak facetted Jan 4 layer. Expect this new snow to sluff in steep terrain and run fast. Be wary of terrain traps lingering below you.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2