Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2014–Mar 2nd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Loose, solar triggered avalanches are possible this afternoon on steep solar aspects. Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when solar radiation is strong.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure over the region gives one more day of sunny skies and cold temperatures.  This AM strong ridge top winds are blowing from the N/E.  Expect alpine temperatures around -18.  An area of low pressure starts to move into the region tonight bringing snow.  Flurries are forecast for Sunday, moderate snow is forecast for Monday.

Snowpack Summary

The Jan 28/Feb 10 PWL down 1-1.4m under a cohesive slab, is becoming more difficult to trigger but has high propagation propensity. Recently avy techs in the Bonney area had a whumph on this layer off the moraines and hard sudden planar results testing it at 2130m on a NE aspect. A surface sun crust has been found on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

We have observed solar triggered natural avalanche activity occurring from steep solar aspects, producing loose wet avalanches in the afternoon when the sun remains out. Numerous size 1.5-2.5 have been observed daily from steep southerly aspects along the highway corridor daily.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

As this weak layer, buried down around 1 m, gains strength human triggered avalanches are still possible. Areas of concern are open, unsupported slopes, convex terrain and thin snowpack areas.
Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Cornices

Cornices may destabilize by fluctuating temperatures.  If they fail, they could be the big trigger to initiate an avalanche in the deeper layers.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4