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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 17th, 2014–Feb 18th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

We have a big snow load overtop a very reactive weak layer down around 1m. Approach open slopes at all elevations with a great deal of caution.

Weather Forecast

Low off the coast of Alaska continues to bring inclement weather from the Pacific to the Interior. Light snow is expected today with westerly winds 20-30km/hr. More significant snowfall is forecast later tomorrow with associated strong west winds.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of new snow sits over 1m of settling recent storm snow from the past week. The Feb 10 facet/surface hoar layer and 2 late January surface hoar layers lie beneath this 1.2m slab. This interface has been the cause of numerous natural avalanches over the past week.

Avalanche Summary

6 natural size 3.0 slab avalanches yesterday as well as several size 2.0 to 2.5 slab avalanches within the highway corridor. Backcountry observations have been limited but riders can expect to see lots of evidence of recent natural activity.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

20cm of additional load overnight totalling 1.2m over a weak layer which has been very reactive this past week. Riders have reported cracking, whoomphing and avalanches on this layer. This is in addition to any shallower storm snow instabilities.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Winds from the current weather pattern have been steadily in the moderate to strong range. Expect to see more slabby conditions at higher elevations reactive to human triggering.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3