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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2024–Feb 29th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

The biggest storm of the season is upon us with snow and wind. Avalanche hazard is high and it is a good time to stay out of the backcountry.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural loose dry avalanches have been observed in the Goat range and one wind slab occurred in the Elbow region. Visibility was poor in most areas to see anything. Given all of the forecast weather, a natural avalanche cycle is either underway or will start overnight.

Snowpack Summary

Expect to find 50-70cm of loose snow and wind slabs sitting on top of the February 3 rain crust/facet layer. The November basal facets are alive and well and back on our radar as the February 2 rain crust is deteriorating and not locking in the weaknesses below as it once did. Skier weight has now been able to break through the Feb 2 rain crust in some places, which means that the basal facets can now be more easily affected.

Weather Summary

The next storm has begun and is expected to bring a pile of snow and strong winds. All weather models are showing a minimum of 20cm of snow, and some up to 45cm by Friday. The winds will be strong from the SW and will continue to create wind slabs. Temperatures will be around -4c.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Avoid traveling in runout zones. Avalanches have the potential to run to the valley floor.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

This is the surface wind slab that is forming with this storm and strong winds.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

This is the Feb 3 rain crust interface which is starting to break down and has facets near this interface and can be found 40-50cm down.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

This is the November basal facet problem that exists in the high alpine and where the Feb 2 rain crust does not exist or has started to break down.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3